I set out to prove WoT is rigged — but ended up proving it isn’t.
Some Simple Facts
- War Gaming (WG) has collected some amazing statistics on you and your game play in World of Tanks. For example: how many trees you have knocked down in the game. Think about that fact for a minute — that is truly amazing. But I’m sure WG has not collected any statistics on your spending habits, like how much gold you buy, what you spend your gold and credits on, etc.
Virtually 100% of established companies use some form of data-mining to better understand their customers. Every company executive knows that if they can understand and influence their customers even a little bit, it can mean more profits. But WG does not have company executives, only programmers, and even if they have some executives they aren’t the type to care about profits, and would not use this information to influence players to spend more.
- WoT is not a pay to win game. Buying premium tanks (e.g. Object 274a), using gold ammo, paying for improved crew training, paying to convert experience to avoid stock tanks, and paying for improved modules does not improve your win rate or gaming experience. Nor does money benefit WG in any way, so obviously they would not do that.
- 25% RNG on all three of aim, penetration and damage is necessary and understandable. 25% (times 3) RNG is not enough to hide rigging of games. Not possible. Very carefully mathematically calculating penetration, and then throwing in 25% RNG makes perfect sense.
- WG unintentionally releases OP tanks because they don’t think, it isn’t on purpose. E.g. when the Object 268 Version 4 was released everyone immediately knew it was OP and broken— except for WG. They had no idea. It took them an entire year to notice and fix it. Encouraging players to buy/work up to OP tanks, even if they use gold, doesn’t benefit WG’s profits in any way. If it did benefit WG, they would routinely be releasing better tanks, which they obviously do not do.
- Virtually every big corporation you can name from BMW to Nestle to Deutsche Bank to Exxon to Google to Facebook to Boeing to Electronic Arts (can’t name them all — the list is too long!) has been fined for breaking the law. Unethical behavior is even more common. But War Gaming is not like the rest and would never do anything unethical. Also, loot boxes are fine.
- WG is in Russia — a country famous for it’s high ethical standards among companies, and incorruptible governments; also there is no mafia in Russia deeply invested in companies like WG.
- WG is not a greedy company. That is why things like experience conversion and premium tanks are fairly priced, such as the Pz.Kpfw. II Ausf. J.
- WG clearly states they don’t rig games. Oh, wait, that’s War Thunder — WG makes no such claim. Never mind.
There is no benefit to WG to rigging games
Encouraging players spend (more) real money on gold, tanks, crew books, etc. doesn’t benefit WG in any way, so they have no reason to do it. WoT is a free to play game so obviously WG has no interest in profits.
And since WG doesn’t understand their players or your spending habits in any way (other than how many trees got knocked down), they don’t know if you are more likely to buy gold to convert experience to get past a dreadful stock tank, for example. They also don’t know if you are likely to use gold ammo or not. They couldn’t (and wouldn’t) give you lots of losing teams in order to encourage you to use gold ammo, modules, etc., more. They can’t not hide anything behind 25% RNG or in the match making anyway.
Watch: Claus takes a close look at penetration stats after three blowouts, points out unusual RNG behavior. Just a coincidence, means nothing.
It’s not unusual in WoT for players to see runs of 6, 10, even 15 losses in a row. Of course, it is their own fault, they should try harder (and hope the other team doesn’t also try harder). Since it is their own fault if they lose, it is also their fault if they win. So everyone is 100% responsible if they win or lose 100% of the time. They can’t blame (or thank) their teams or the (very fair) match making.
Anyway the odds of getting 15 losses in a row are not that large, 1 in 65534, so expect it to happen often, like every third or forth time you play. Just like if you flipped a coin, it’s silly to expect a mix of heads and tails. You should expect to get runs of 4, 8 even 10 in a row out of 10 tries, almost every time.
And WoT MM has nothing to do with which players/tanks go onto which team. Nor would they use it to their monetary advantage. Just because the other team gets the Chieftain platoon and your team left-behind tech-tree tanks, that is doesn’t automatically mean your team will lose. It’s perfectly fair, and not a sign of rigged MM. Even if the enemy teams seem to constantly be getting the Chieftains, 907s, 279(e)s (etc.), that is just normal “randomness”. Things happening 90% of the time — that is what random means. You should not expect the OP tanks to be on your team anyway — that would be unfair to the other team.
Loot Box Winnings Are Fairly Distributed
WG came out with gambling loot boxes with a chance to get a new tank (T77). Three of the best known streamers (QB, Dez, Skill) all got the tank within their first 20 boxes. So the chance of getting the tank must be 1 in 20! Put your money down because it’s guaranteed you will win.
Claus also got the T77, but not in the first 20 boxes https://youtu.be/lAGMM4OIjgs?t=1914.
So everyone who buys loot boxes gets a T77, nice. Well I didn’t get one, so almost everyone. I should have tried opening my loot boxes harder.
5x XP Weekends
It is normal on 5x XP weekends to start with 5, 8, 10 losses in a row. That is normal and expected. Then after the weekend ends, its normal to get 80% wins for a hour. Completely normal, that is just how random works, don’t you know anything?
First battle in a new tank
When you get a new tank, you are full of optimism and you therefore win, like 80/90% of the time. Being AFK doesn’t even impact this probability. Again, this is just how random works. Then, you get 4 losses in a row. Your fault, and just because this happens consistently doesn’t mean anything.
Complain to WG…
Publicly complaining to WG that their game is rigged, and the very next weekend getting 15 losses in a row is just a coincidence. These things are completely unrelated. Even if the odds of 15 losses in a row is 1 in 65534. Just a coincidence. WG would get never get pissed and flag your account causing the losses, because the game isn’t rigged.
That pretty much proves it. You’d have to be silly to think WoT is rigged. Or, you’d have to know a little about the real world and have a working brain.